RECENT DEVELOPMENTSPremiums and Losses: As of the beginning of January 2009, total multiple peril crop insurance (MPCI) premiums for crop year 2008 (catastrophic and additional business combined) were well ahead of last year, due in part to rising commodity prices. The tally for 2008 MPCI business was $9.86 billion, an increase of almost 50 percent over the previous 12 months, according to data from the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC). The livestock insurance program is also expanding. In 2008 the number of cattle insured was 1.3 million, twice the 2007 number. Data from the Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency (RMA), which manages the program for FCIC, provide 2008 state MPCI premium rankings. North Dakota topped the premium list, followed by Iowa and Illinois, the leading state in both 2007 and 2006. In North Dakota, the state that saw the greatest change, premiums almost doubled. Tennessee also registered a significant change, with premiums rising more than 80 percent from 2007. In Florida, the only state to see a decrease, premiums dropped more than 10 percent. According to the National Crop Insurance Services, which collects data for the private crop insurance business, 2008 was a year of significant crop-hail losses. Historically, the loss ratio has hovered around 66 percent. The loss ratio is the percentage of each premium dollar spent on claims. In the 2008 crop year, preliminary estimates put the loss ratio at about 80, reversing the trend of the last five years. Nebraska topped the crop-hail insurance premium list for crop year 2008, at $95.8 million, and also suffered the largest losses, at $107.3 million, producing a loss ratio of 112. However, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and South Carolina had the highest crop-hail loss ratios at 922, 150 and 136, respectively, meaning that in the case of New Jersey, where a relatively few policies are sold, claims cost the industry in that state more than $922 for every $100 collected in premiums. The crop insurance business is subject to great variability in results, not only by state but across time. For example, the MPCI combined ratio was 75.3 in 2007 but 91.3 in 2005, the year that hurricanes Katrina and Rita struck the Gulf Coast, and 76.1 in 2004. In 2002, when the Midwest suffered a widespread drought, the MPCI combined ratio was 124.4 and in the following year it was 109.8. The combined ratio is a measure of profitability; it represents the percentage of the premium dollar spent on claims and expenses. Legislation: The 2007 farm bill was finally passed in 2008. Among the major provisions affecting crop insurers is a decrease of $5.6 billion in the federal crop insurance program, $800 million of which is related to the government’s reimbursement of crop insurers’ administrative and operating costs. Reimbursements represent a percentage of premiums which have risen substantially as crop prices have surged, somewhat offsetting the cuts. In addition, farmers will pay higher administrative fess for catastrophe coverage. The “Combo” Crop Insurance Policy: The Federal Crop Insurance Program is proposing a new combination crop insurance policy for major grain crops, which will provide both revenue and yield protection. The ”Combo” policy will replace crop revenue coverage, income protection and several other coverages, the goal being to reduce paperwork and simplify risk management decisions. Originally approved for the 2009 crop year, implementation was delayed by one year to 2010 because of the need to upgrade information technology. Fraud: In 2005 the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) published a report on fraud waste and abuse in the crop insurance program. In 2007 the GAO found that the Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency (RMA) was not using all the tools available and some farmers continued to abuse the program. In the past it has recommended reducing premium subsidies to those who repeatedly file questionable claims, improving the effectiveness of growing season inspections and strengthening oversight of insurance companies’ use of quality controls. Government investigators are increasingly using satellite images to match actual crop planting and growing practices in suspicious cases with information submitted in claims. New Programs: Livestock insurance is now available in all states where livestock are farmed. Livestock insurance, which just a few years ago was only a pilot project, allows the policyholder to lock in prices for animals to be sold for slaughter. If prices subsequently fall, the policy compensates for a portion of the loss. In a related move that will also help livestock producers, the RMA has developed programs for pasture, rangeland, forage and hay to provide a safety net for farmers who face drought conditions There are two programs: the Rainfall Index program and the Vegetation Index—both use indexes and grids that are smaller than counties to determine expected losses. The Rainfall program is based on accumulated rainfall and the Vegetation program relies on satellite images to measure departures from expected losses in a given grid area. Originally available on a limited basis, as of January 2009 the rainfall index is available in at least 10 states and the vegetation index in at least 13. So far they have been highly successful, with participation levels in excess of expectations. Together, these programs ultimately will be available in areas that represent about 25 percent of the nation’s grazing and hay land. The RMA’s long-range goals call for some kind of crop insurance product to be available to cover 98 percent of the value of U.S. commercial crops by crop year 2012. The development of a livestock program will help expand the program since more than half of all farms are livestock farms. In 2004, 15 states deemed historically underserved by the crop insurance program were targeted for $4.5 million in educational programs under the Agricultural Risk Protection Act of 2000. These states are mostly in the Northeast. The northeastern parts of the country have a disproportionate share of small farms. This program is continuing along with an outreach program to specialty crop producers, few of whom are insured, and ranchers. One answer to the problems of small farms may be what has become known as an adjusted gross revenue “lite” insurance program which covers the whole farm under one policy. The policy provides a maximum protection of $100,000 and can cover all crops and animal production including milk. Approved as a pilot program in some parts of Pennsylvania in 2003, it was expanded to cover five more states for the 2005 crop year. The program is now available in more than half the states.
CROP-HAIL INSURANCE, 1998-2007($000)
MULTIPLE PERIL CROP INSURANCE, 1999-2007($000)
BACKGROUNDInsurance works best when everyone exposed to a certain kind of risk, such as fire, buys a policy, but only a limited number of policyholders suffer losses (and therefore file claims) in any given year. Where all policyholders in a geographical area are likely to file claims, as farmers would in the event of a drought, and where the people mostly likely to purchase insurance are those most vulnerable to loss, such as farmers in flood plains, insurers cannot spread the risk of loss broadly enough and over a sufficient length of time to make insurance affordable. This fundamental principle of insurance is critical to an understanding of the history of crop insurance. Agricultural production is subject to many uncertainties, including natural disasters. Adverse weather, insect infestations and plant diseases can severely reduce the yield or quality of a crop, wiping out a farmer's profits for the whole year in a bad season. The most important consideration, as far as insurers are concerned, is the potential for catastrophic losses resulting in widespread and severe damage claims. Many "perils," or causes of loss, to which farmers are exposed, such as heat and drought, freezing temperatures and excessive moisture, can affect whole regions. Droughts may also persist for extended periods so that farmers may suffer successive losses. But there is one common weather-related disaster that generally impacts a more limited area, and that is hail. Hail strikes randomly and erratically. Crops growing in one part of a field may be completely ruined while the remainder is unscathed.
In addition, damage from hail can be easily identified and assessed separately from other adverse conditions that can lead to yield losses. The catastrophic nature of many crop-related perils led to the development of two types of crop insurance: crop-hail insurance, which is provided by the private marketplace, and the multiple peril crop insurance program, which is overseen and subsidized by the federal government and sold and serviced by private insurers. Multiple peril insurance covers most causes of loss, as its name suggests.The History of the Federal Crop Insurance Program: Hail insurance has been in existence in some form since the early part of the twentieth century and it has been a thriving segment of the insurance industry since the 1920s. Insurers also tried to develop a multirisk crop insurance business. But the attempt failed because they had insufficient data to set adequate rates to cover the kind of widespread catastrophic losses that long periods of drought, for example, produced. In 1933 at the height of the Great Depression, Congress passed major legislation aimed at protecting the family farm. By restricting domestic production, it hoped to raise prices for agricultural products and this, together with subsidies to keep acreage unplanted, would restore farmers' standard of living to pre-World War I levels. Five years later in 1938 after the U.S. Supreme Court declared the law unconstitutional, a new piece of legislation was enacted with similar goals, authorizing the Secretary of Agriculture to set acreage and marketing quotas for staple and export crops and to pay cash subsidies for planting soil conserving crops. (It was not until the 1990s that Congress began to seriously question the wisdom of protecting farmers from market forces, especially since the family farms that such programs were designed to protect now account for only a small portion of agricultural production.)In the same year that price support legislation was passed, Congress approved the Federal Crop Insurance Act, thereby creating the first federal crop insurance program. Backed by the resources of the U.S. Treasury Department, lawmakers expected the federal program to avoid the problems that had thwarted the formation of a private multirisk insurance industry. However, it was plagued by high costs, low participation on the part of farmers and an inability to accumulate sufficient reserves to pay for catastrophic losses. In an effort to make the program more financially viable, lawmakers limited coverage to crops and geographic areas that would be least likely to require government subsidies and to protect farmers who were not insured. Congress began to provide disaster assistance and emergency loans. As federal expenditures under these programs grew, not surprisingly, farmers had little incentive to purchase crop insurance and consequently the program remained limited in scope. In 1980, frustrated by the program's continuing deficiencies, Congress passed legislation designed to make crop insurance the preeminent vehicle for helping farmers survive major agricultural disasters. Its goals were to increase participation in the program to the point where government-funded disaster assistance programs could be abolished; raise the level of efficiency by joining with the private sector to sell, service and bear some of the risk of providing coverage (until then crop insurance was provided solely by the U.S. Department of Agriculture); and create an actuarially sound program that would reduce federal outlays while keeping coverage affordable through subsidies. The private sector would be involved in two ways: as master marketers and reinsured companies. Master marketers were insurers paid by the federal government to sell crop insurance policies but who did not assume liability on policies they serviced. (This arrangement was phased out by 1994, see below). Now private insurers bear the underwriting risk and the policies they write are reinsured by the federal government. Farmers’ premiums cover a portion of the risk of loss. Reinsured companies are reimbursed by the federal government for administrative and operating expenses and they share the risk of loss. A decade later the program was still experiencing problems. Because so many farmers lacked coverage, Congress found it difficult to resist political pressures to provide ad hoc disaster assistance and emergency loans, further undermining the crop insurance program. The devastating Midwest floods of 1993 further highlighted the costs and inefficiencies of the federal government supporting two separate and competing programs to deal with crop disasters. By 1994 the federal program was approaching a crisis. Despite the involvement of the private sector, the participation rate in any given year rarely exceeded 33 percent and the federal annual price tag for crop insurance was close to $900 million. Disaster relief expenditures, which were “off-budget”(not counted towards budget limits), were out of control, with payments over the six-year period 1988-1994 averaging $1.5 billion per year. Market-oriented Reforms: The Federal Crop Insurance Reform Act of 1994 was passed at a time when the costs of all agricultural programs were under intense scrutiny as part of efforts to balance the federal budget. With little hope of bringing expenditures under control unless it made sweeping changes in the program, Congress decided to mesh crop insurance and disaster assistance into one program, radically restructuring the agricultural community's safety net. Lawmakers took a multipronged approach. First, if disaster payments were to be severely curtailed or abolished, farmers would need some measure of economic security. A key element of the legislation, therefore, was the provision of basically free "CAT" coverage—insurance against catastrophic losses. All producers of insurable crops would be able to purchase CAT coverage for a nominal processing fee. Crops not covered by the federal crop insurance program would be eligible for a special disaster assistance program with payments triggered by area-wide losses. The level of payment would be similar to that of the CAT insurance plan. Second, as an added incentive for growers to invest in a comprehensive multiple peril crop insurance program, the federal government would subsidize the premium for additional insurance coverage, see below. Third, the "emergency" designation status for crop loss legislation, which allowed undisciplined off-budget borrowing to pay for disaster relief, would be repealed. Any future disaster assistance would be considered part of the budget and therefore could not be approved without an offsetting reduction in spending for other programs. Fourth, all farm programs, including crop insurance, would be handled by a single agency to improve service and program coordination. One key provision of the 1994 legislation, which was later modified as part of a massive reform of farm policy, was mandatory catastrophe coverage. To encourage farmers to buy insurance, and thus further minimize the potential need for disaster aid, crop insurance had been tied to agricultural price support and loan programs. Under the 1994 legislation, farmers would not be eligible for these farm program benefits unless they had obtained at least the basic catastrophic level of crop insurance protection. By encouraging farmers to obtain CAT insurance, the program widened the pool of policyholders beyond those most exposed to risk. But when Congress began to review the nation's farm programs, which were due for reauthorization in September 1995 (agricultural policy is reviewed by Congress every five years), lawmakers examined all aspects of farm policy, including insurance, and decided to make some changes. As part of the sweeping farm policy reform legislation that was passed early in 1996, farmers are no longer required to have a minimum level of insurance as long as they waive in writing eligibility for any future disaster payments. Farmers who fail to sign waivers must carry CAT coverage to maintain their eligibility for disaster aid. In addition, the sale and servicing of policies would be shifted to the private sector. The Federal Crop Insurance Corporation would manage crop insurance, establishing insurance policy terms and conditions, setting rates and generating the payment of claims through its Risk Management Agency (RMA). The exception to this is the noninsured crop disaster assistance program, which remains with the Farm Service Agency. Congressional deliberations about farm subsidy costs ultimately resulted in one of the biggest shifts in agricultural policy since the 1930s. Part of the impetus for change was the movement to reduce the federal deficit. But it was also an acknowledgement that farming had changed over the past six decades. Most of the subsidies were now going to large agricultural corporations that today grow most of the nation's food crops and to absentee owners of farmland living outside the agricultural community. In 1940, according to Congressional testimony, there were 6.1 million farms. In 1996 there were only 2.1 million. Many of these no longer rely on farming for the major portion of their income. Only 348,000 are considered “commercial” farms with annual sales in excess of $100,000. The New Deal price support program had allowed farmers to sell their crops to the federal government for a fixed price when market prices fell below a government-set target price. Now that the subsidy program was about to end, there was a need to fill this gap. Many farmers use the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) commodities futures market to protect against falling prices. Most use the futures market indirectly through cash-forward contracts with grain elevators, large farm product merchandisers who distribute agricultural products and who in turn hedge their exposure with the CBOT. But in either case, they have not been able to lock in prices for their entire crop because of uncertainties about the yield. Insurance programs reduce the risk of a poor yield but until recently did not respond to price declines. The 1996 Agricultural Market Transition Act addressed the need for "revenue" protection—the product of yield and price. Provisions in the bill set up various pilot programs that respond to fluctuating price levels as well as yield variability using the CBOT commodity prices. In addition, the CBOT itself has developed a new crop yield insurance product that allows grain elevators to offer farmers over-the-counter revenue insurance contracts in much the same way as they now offer cash-forward contracts. The major difference between CBOT and insurance products is in the underlying standard on which the contract is based. Insurance products are tailored to an individual farmer's historic yield, or in some cases to the yield of the county, see Revenue Insurance section, whereas the CBOT contracts are based on much broader aggregates, such as the state average yield. Congress approved another major piece of legislation, the Agricultural Risk Protection Act (ARPA) in May 2000. The Act made it easier for farmers to buy different types of multiple peril crop insurance, including revenue insurance, by increasing government subsidies. Over the five years following the passage of the bill, $8.2 billion is to be spent on the Federal Crop Insurance Program and 80 percent of these funds is to be set aside to reduce farmers' premium expenses. The measure also addressed the problem of farmers who face lower than average yields in their production history following multiple years of natural disasters. A succession of bad harvests lowers farmers’ insurance payments since compensation for low yields is based on actual production history. Under the law, farmers may include a yield equal to 60 percent of the long-term county average for any year in which their yield falls below that amount. In addition, the legislation focused on eliminating waste, fraud and abuses of the program; expanded pilot programs to include coverage for livestock; and extended risk management activities to underserved areas. Farmers with a good record may receive a performance-based discount on premiums. Crop-hail Insurance: Insurance coverage for hail damage is provided by both the private sector, with crop-hail insurance, and under federally subsidized multiple peril insurance policies. Farmers who purchase crop-hail coverage can choose to drop coverage for hail under the multiple peril policy, in exchange for a reduction in premium, or keep it for additional protection. A basic crop-hail policy covers losses due to hail and generally also fire, which is characterized by the same randomness as hail. The policy also covers damage caused by lightning and transit after harvest to storage. Coverage for additional causes of loss, such as vandalism, may be available as well as coverage for replanting costs when hailstorms early in the growing season damage a crop so severely that it has to be replanted. When the destroyed crop is replanted, the farmer also receives compensation for the reduction in expected yield due to the later planting date. Most insurers offer policies for the major grain and hay crops but the availability of coverage for specialty and vegetable crops is more limited. A policy can be purchased at any stage during the growing season from the time when 50 percent of the crop is clearly visible to the anticipated harvest date, as long as the crop has not already been damaged by hail. To prevent growers from closely tracking weather patterns and waiting until a storm with the potential for hail is imminent before buying insurance, the policy does not take effect until one minute after midnight on the second day after the signing of the application. Farmers can insure all crops in which they have a financial interest (where land is leased, the landowner as well as the farmer have financial interests in the crop yield) or just a portion of their acreage.The amount of coverage, which is purchased on a per-acre basis, is limited to the expected value of the crop, including anticipated profit. Coverage amount is the harvest price per bushel (or pound) forecast for the crop at the time the insurance policy is sold, times the number of bushels or pounds each acre is expected to produce. Premiums vary according to the susceptibility of the crop to hail damage and the location of the crop. Since hail losses have been tracked for more than 40 years, certain townships are known to be more prone to hail damage than others. After a report of loss, the adjuster estimates the percentage reduction in yield due to hail damage by taking samples and sometimes actually counting the plants damaged in a representative area. The loss calculation takes into account the fact that the expected value of the crop at the time the loss occurs may be higher than the value (yield times market price) forecast at the time the policy was written. However, the claim payment or "cash value" cannot exceed the original underwriting limit or the policyholder's financial interest in the crop. Where there is the possibility of a bumper crop, the farmer may increase coverage mid-season. Multiple Peril Crop Insurance: Multiple peril, or all risk crop insurance, protects against low yield and crop quality losses due to adverse weather (including hail) and unavoidable damage from insects and disease. While multiple peril insurance covers most economically significant agricultural crops grown in the United States—more than 100 crops—insurance for a specific crop may not be available in every state or in every county within a state. Most crops for which there is not yet coverage are eligible for the limited protection offered by the Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program. A farmer purchasing multiple peril crop insurance has a number of coverage options. The first is a CAT (catastrophe) policy, the lowest amount of protection available. This coverage, which pays 55 percent of a crop's established price on crop losses in excess of 50 percent, provides a basic safety net. To encourage proper record keeping, reduce overpayments and deter fraud, payments may be reduced by up to 50 percent where farmers lack certified historical yield records, known as actual production history (APH). The federal government subsidizes the entire cost of the CAT coverage. Farmers pay only an administrative fee. In addition, farmers can buy additional insurance, known as "private supplemental," under a "buy up" program designed to encourage purchase of higher, more adequate levels of coverage.Under the buy-up program, the federal government subsidizes a portion of the premium. Currently, the subsidy decreases as the amount of coverage rises. However, while the government’s share of the premium shrinks with each step up in coverage, the total dollar amount that the farmer receives in subsidy increases. In addition, there are more complex supplemental coverages that protect farmers who, for example, commit their entire crop to food processing plants in advance of harvest or need it to feed livestock and therefore must be able to replace lost crops at market prices. There are also supplemental programs to increase the loss payment amount and to increase payments in catastrophic situations.Producers of some crops may be eligible for a multiple peril coverage known as "group risk" crop insurance, which may cost less than other options. It differs from the basic coverage in that yield guarantees are based on the county average yield rather than that of the individual farmer and is suitable for farmers whose yields tends to follow countywide yields. Policyholders automatically receive an insurance payment in any year that the county average yield falls below the yield guarantee. Group risk income protection adds a price protection feature to this coverage. Differences Between Crop-hail and Multiple Peril Insurance: There are several key differences between multiple peril and crop-hail insurance programs. First, farmers purchasing multiple peril insurance choose coverage levels by "unit" rather than by acre as with crop-hail. A unit is the entire acreage of the crop planted in the county by the farmer. Farmers can also break down coverage by "sections"—one square mile—or by irrigated and dryland practices. This difference is most evident when a loss occurs, because in the multiple peril program the amount of the loss—the reduced yield—is averaged out over all the fields in the unit rather than over the affected acre or acres insured. Second, a farmer cannot suddenly decide to buy a multiple peril policy. Unlike crop-hail, multiple peril coverage must be purchased prior to certain dates set by the federal government, which vary according to the county and the crop. These sign-up deadlines are set early in the planting season before long-range weather forecasts can influence purchase decisions. Coverage takes effect once the crop is planted, but the crop must be planted before the last government established planting date by crop and by county. Coverage may not be added during the growing season.In addition, crop-hail coverage generally provides coverage from the first dollar of loss, although deductibles are offered, whereas multiple peril coverage includes what amounts to a deductible, guaranteeing up to 100 percent of expected market price but never 100 percent of yield.Standard Reinsurance Agreement: From a private reinsured company financial perspective, the federal crop insurance program is unique in many ways. The first is the Standard Reinsurance Agreement. This sets out the relationship between private insurance companies and the federal government concerning the risk each will bear. There are three risk pools in each state—the commercial, developmental and assigned risk funds—and the amount of risk the insurer retains varies according to the pool and by state. Those policies covering acreage in counties known for low yields, for example, will be placed in the assigned risk fund, where the federal government bears most of the risk, and those where the risk of low yields is lowest in the commercial pool. Insurers may also reinsure a portion of their business in the private reinsurance market. Second, all administrative and operating costs are reimbursed by the federal government on a percentage-of-premium basis. This percentage is steadily being cut largely because farmers are purchasing higher amounts of insurance and administrative costs do not necessarily increase proportionately with each additional dollar of coverage. In addition, crop insurers have less investment income than insurers in other segments of the industry because they receive payment for coverage after it has been provided, rather than in advance as with other types of insurance. Premiums, for example, are not due until the end of the insurance period and are not paid on policies under which claims have been filed, the premium is deducted from amounts owed, and administrative expenses are not reimbursed until the actual acreage planted is reported, often as much as five months after the insurance sales closing date. Moreover, premiums fluctuate widely because they are tied to the market value of the crop and the acreage planted.Revenue Insurance: Farmers face three major risks: low crop prices, poor quality and low yields. Under the standard multiple peril policy, farmers are compensated for losses in crop yield. The market price paid for each bushel is fixed at a level set by the government in advance of the growing season, regardless of the actual price at harvest time, which could be lower or higher than the government forecast. The policy is triggered when the yield is less than the level of protection selected. Coverage can be between 50 and 75 percent of what their acreage typically produces and from 60 percent to 100 percent of the projected market price. The uninsured portion of the yield and anything below the full market price is essentially a deductible. Revenue insurance, which was first introduced in the mid-1990s, goes a step beyond standard multiple peril coverage. It guarantees farmers a certain income, allowing them to manage both yield and price risk. It recognizes that farmers’ income is the product of the price they receive for what they have grown, as well as the number of bushels or pounds their acreage yields. With a revenue insurance policy in hand, farmers can borrow against and market their crops in advance, knowing they will have set revenues regardless of market conditions at harvest time. Several broad types of revenue insurance programs have been developed.One program, Income Protection (IP), was created by the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) itself as a pilot program beginning with the 1996 crop year. Under an IP crop insurance policy, the farmer receives a payment when any combination of low harvest prices and low yield push gross income below the guaranteed income level selected. The income guarantee is based on early board of trade commodity prices for the insured crop. A second program, developed by the Iowa Farm Bureau and approved as a pilot program beginning in crop year 1997, is Revenue Assurance (RA). RA is similar to IP in most respects except that commodity prices are adjusted to reflect average prices in the county to make them more representative of local market conditions. Premiums for RA tend to be lower than for IP, which is based on prices across a broad geographical production area, because the likelihood of income loss in Iowa counties is lower than average. In Iowa, yields tend to be more uniform across counties and prices therefore tend to move in opposite directions to a greater extent than elsewhere. When yields are low, rising prices typically compensate for a reduction in production and vice versa. In other states, yields across counties tend to vary to a greater extent under similar growing conditions. Low production in one county may be offset by higher production in another, thus stabilizing market prices and increasing the likelihood that a farmer with low yields will have a reduced income. A third program, Crop Revenue Coverage (CRC), was developed by American Agrisurance, a private insurance company participating in the federal crop insurance program. The coverage was approved as a pilot program beginning in the 1996 crop year. CRC provides more comprehensive protection than the other two programs in that its revenue guarantee, which is based on the higher of two prices: the early market price and the harvest market price, covers fluctuations in market price both up and down. Although the upward movement in harvest price is capped above the historic maximum price increase, CRC allows the farmer to capture some of the benefit or rising prices when yields drop. Revenue coverage is also available based on the county average revenue rather than the historical average of the individual farmer. Another option, particularly for small farms, is adjusted gross revenue coverage which insures the revenue of the entire farm, including some livestock rather than a single crop.
USA - Recent development of crop insurance program06.03.2009 676 views
A Practical Method for Adjusting the Premium Rates in Crop-Hail Insurance with Short-Term Insurance Data
The frequency of hailstorms is generally low in small geographic areas. In other words, it may be very likely that hailstorm occurrences will vary between neighboring locations within a short period of time. Besides, a newly launched insurance scheme lacks the data. It is, therefore, difficult to sustain a sound insurance program under these circumstances, with premium rates based on meteorological data without a complimentary adjustment process.
Malta - Vegetable production dropped 7% in 2018
Last year, Malta’s local vegetable produce dropped by 7% when compared to the previous year. The total vegetables produced in tonnes amounted to 58,178, down by 7% when compared to 2017. Their value too diminished as the total produce was valued at €30 million, down by 13% over the previous year. The most significant drop was in potatoes, down by 27% over the previous year. Tomatoes and onions were the only vegetables to have increased in volume, by 3% and 4% respectively but their value diminished by 9% and 24% respectively. The figures were published by the National Statistics Office on the event of World Food Day 2019, which will be celebrated on Wednesday. Cauliflower, cabbage and lettuce produce dropped by 10%, 3%, and 12% respectively. In the realm of local fruit, a drop of produce was registered here too apart from strawberries, which experienced a whopping increase of 58% over 2017. Total fruit produced in 2018 amounted to 13,057 tonnes, down by 1% when compared to 2017. The total produce was valued at €10 million, a 3% increase in value. Peaches produced were down by 35% and the 376 tonnes of peaches cultivated amounted to €0.5 million in value. Orange produce dropped by 10% and lemon produce dropped by 14%. There was no change in the amount of grapes produced and the 3,642 tonnes of grapes produced in 2018 were valued at €2.3 million. 70% of fruit and vegetables consumed in Malta is imported. The drop in local produce could be the result of deleterious or unsuitable weather patterns. Source - https://www.freshplaza.com
USA - Greenhouse tomato production spans most states
While Florida and California accounted for 76 percent of U.S. production of field-grown tomatoes in 2016, greenhouse production and use of other protected-culture technologies help extend the growing season and make production feasible in a wider variety of geographic locations. Some greenhouse production is clustered in traditional field-grown-tomato-producing States like California. However, high concentrations of greenhouses are also located in Nebraska, Minnesota, New York, and other States that are not traditional market leaders. Among the benefits that greenhouse tomato producers can realize are greater market access both in the off-season and in northern retail produce markets, better product consistency, and improved yields. These benefits make greenhouse tomato production an increasingly attractive alternative to field production despite higher production costs. In addition to domestic production, a significant share of U.S. consumption of greenhouse tomatoes is satisfied by imports. In 2004, U.S., Mexican, and Canadian growers each contributed about 300 million pounds of greenhouse tomatoes annually to the U.S. fresh tomato market. Since then, Mexico’s share of the greenhouse tomato market has grown sharply, accounting for almost 84 percent (1.8 billion pounds) of the greenhouse volume coming into the U.S. market. Source - https://www.freshplaza.com
World cherry production will decrease to 3.6 million tons
According to information from the USDA for the 2019-2020 season, world cherry production is expected to decrease slightly and amount to 3.6 million tons. This decline is due to the damages that the weather caused on cherry crops in the European Union. Even though Chile is expected to achieve a record export, world trade in cherries is expected to drop to 454,000 tons, based on lower shipments from Uzbekistan and the US. Turkey Turkey's production is expected to increase to 865,000. As a result of the strong export demand, producers continue to invest and improve their orchards, switching to high yield varieties and gradually expanding the surface for sweet cherries. More supplies are expected to increase exports to a record 78,000 tons, continuing its long upward trend. Chile Chile's production is forecast to increase from 30,000 tons to 231,000 as they have a larger area of mature trees. Between 2009/10 and 2018/19, the crop area has almost tripled, a trend that is expected to continue. The country is expected to export up to 205,000 tons in higher supplies. The percentage of exports destined for China has increased from 13 to almost 90% since 2009/10. China China's production is expected to increase by up to 24% and to amount to 420,000 tons, due to the recovery of the orchards that were damaged by frost last year. In addition, there are new crops that will go into production. Imports are expected to increase by 15,000 tons and to stand at 195,000 tons, as the increase in supplies from Chile will more than compensate for the lower shipments from the United States. Although higher tariffs are maintained for American cherries, the United States is expected to remain China's main supplier in the northern hemisphere. United States US production is expected to remain stable at 450,000 tons. Imports are expected to increase to 18,000 tons with more supplies available from Chile. Exports are forecast to decrease for the second consecutive year to 80,000 tons, as high retaliatory tariffs continue to suppress US shipments to China. If this happens, it will be the first time that US cherry exports experience a decrease in 2 consecutive years since 2002/03, when production suffered a fall of 44%. European Union EU production is projected to fall by more than 20%, remaining at 648,000 tons because of the hail that affected the early varieties in Italy, and the frost, low temperatures, and drought that caused a significant loss of fruit in Poland, the main producer. Lower supplies are expected to pressure exports to 15,000 tons and increase imports to 55,000 tons. Russia Russia's imports are expected to contract by 13,000 tons to 80,000 with lower supplies from Kazakhstan, Moldova, and Serbia. Source - https://www.freshplaza.com
EU - 20% fewer apples and 14% fewer pears than last year
This year's European apple production is expected to come to 10,556,000 tons. That is 20% less than last year. It is also 8% less than the average over the past three years. The European pear harvest is expected to be 2,047,000 tons. This is 14% lower than last year and 9% less than the previous three seasons average. These figures are according to the World Apple and Pear Association, WAPA's top fruit prognoses. They presented their report at Prognosfruit this morning. Apple harvest per country Poland is Europe's apple-growing giant. This country is expected to process 44% fewer apples. The yield is expected to be 2,710,000 tons. Last year, this was still 4,810,000 tons. In Italy, yields are only three percent lower than last year. According to WAPA, this country will have an apple harvest of 2,195,000 tons. France takes third place. They will even have 12% more apples than last year to process - 1,652,000 tons. Pear harvest per country With 511,000 tons, Italy's pear harvest is much lower than last year. It has dropped by 30%. In terms of the average over the previous three seasons, this fruit's yield is 29% lower. In the Netherlands, the pear harvest is expected to be six percent lower, at 379,000 tons. This volume is still 3% more than the average over the last three years. Belgium has 10% fewer pears (331,000 tons) than last year. They are just ahead of Spain. With 311,000 tons, Spain who will harvest four percent more pears. Apple harvest per variety The Golden Delicious remains, by far, the largest apple variety in Europe. It is expected that 2,327,000 tons of these apples will be harvested this year. This is three percent less than last year. At 1,467,000 tons, Gala estimations are exactly the same as last year. The European Elstar harvest will also be roughly equivalent to last year. A volume of 355,000 tons of this variety is expected. Pear harvest per variety Looking at the different varieties, the European Conference is estimated to be 8% lower than last year. A volume of 910,000 tons is expected. The low Italian pear estimate will result in 34% fewer Abate Fetel pears (211,000 tons) being available. This is according to WAPA's estimate. This makes this variety smaller than the Williams BC (230.000 ton) in Europe. Source - https://www.freshplaza.com
Spring frost losses and climate change not a contradiction in terms - Munich Re
Between 17 April and 10 May 2017, large parts of Europe were hit by a cold snap that brought a series of overnight frosts. As the budding process was already well advanced due to an exceptionally warm spring, losses reached historic levels – particularly for fruit and wine growers: economic losses are estimated at €3.3bn, with around €600m of this insured. In the second and third ten-day periods of April, and in some cases even over the first ten days of May 2017, western, central, southern and eastern Europe experienced a series of frosty nights, with catastrophic consequences in many places for fruit growing and viticulture. The worst-affected countries were Italy, France, Germany, Poland, Spain and Switzerland. Losses were so high because vegetation was already well advanced following an exceptionally warm spell of weather in March that continued into the early part of April. For example, the average date of apple flowering in 2017 for Germany as a whole was 20 April, seven days earlier than the average for the period 1992 to 2016. In many parts of Germany, including the Lake Constance fruit-growing region, it even began before 15 April. In the case of cherry trees – whose average flowering date in Germany in 2017 was 6 April – it was as much as twelve days earlier than the long-term average. The frost had a devastating impact because of the early start of the growing season in many parts of Europe. In the second half of April, it affected the sensitive blossoms, the initial fruiting stages and the first frost-susceptible shoots on vines. Meteorological conditions The weather conditions that accounted for the frosty nights are a typical feature of April, and also the reason for the month’s proverbial reputation for changeable weather. The corridor of fast-moving upper air flow, also known as the polar front, forms in such a way that it moves in over central Europe from northwesterly directions near Iceland. This north or northwest pattern frequently occurs if there is high air pressure over the eastern part of the North Atlantic, and lower air pressure over the Baltic and the northwest of Russia. Repeated low-pressure areas move along this corridor towards Europe, bringing moist and cold air masses behind their cold fronts from the areas of Greenland and Iceland. Occasionally, the high-pressure area can extend far over the continent in an easterly direction. The flow then brings dry, cold air to central Europe from high continental latitudes moving in a clockwise direction around the high. It was precisely this set of weather conditions with its higher probability of overnight frost that dominated from mid-April to the end of the month. There were frosts with temperatures falling below –5°C, in particular from 17 to 24 April (second and third ten-day periods of April), and even into the first ten-day period of May in eastern Europe. The map in Fig. 2 shows the areas that experienced night-time temperatures of –2°C and below in April/May. High losses in fruit and wine growing Frost damage to plants comes from intracellular ice formation. The cell walls collapse and the plant mass then dries out. The loss pattern is therefore similar to what is seen after a drought. Agricultural crops are at varying risk from frost in the different phases of growth. They are especially sensitive during flowering and shortly after budding, as was the case with fruit and vines in April 2017 due to the early onset of the growing season. That was why the losses were so exceptionally high in this instance. In Spain, the cold snap also affected cereals, which were already flowering by this date. Even risk experts were surprised at the geographic extent and scale of the losses (overall losses: €3.3bn, insured losses: approximately €600m). Overall losses were highest in Italy and France, with figures of approximately a billion euros recorded in each country. Two basic concepts for frost insurance As frost has always been considered a destructive natural peril for fruit and wine growing and horticulture, preventive measures are widespread. In horticulture, for example, plants are cultivated in greenhouses or under covers, while in fruit growing, frost-protection measures include the use of sprinkler irrigation as well as wind machines or helicopters to mix the air layers. Just how effective these methods prove to be will depend on meteorological conditions, which is precisely why risk transfer is so important in this sector. There are significant differences between one country and the next in terms of insurability and insurance solutions. But essentially there are two basic concepts available for frost insurance: indemnity insurance, where hail cover is extended to include frost or other perils yield guarantee insurance covering all natural perils In most countries, the government subsidises insurance premiums, which means that insurance penetration is higher. In Germany, where premiums are not subsidised and frost insurance density is low, individual federal states like Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg have committed to providing aid to farms that have suffered losses – including aid for insurable crops such as wine grapes and strawberries. Late frosts and climate change There are very clear indications that climate change is bringing forward both the start of the vegetation period and the date of the last spring frost. Whether the spring frost hazard increases or decreases with climate change depends on which of the two occurs earlier. There is thus a race between these two processes: if the vegetation period in any given region begins increasingly earlier compared with the date of the last spring frost, the hazard will increase over the long term. If the opposite is the case, the hazard diminishes. Because of the different climate zones in Europe, the race between these processes is likely to vary considerably. Whereas the east is more heavily influenced by the continental climate, regions close to the Atlantic coastline in the west enjoy a much milder spring. A study has shown that climate change is likely to significantly reduce the spring frost risk in viticulture in Luxembourg along the River Moselle1. The number of years with spring frost between 2021 and 2050 is expected to be 40% lower than in the period 1961 to 1990. By contrast, a study on fruit-growing regions in Germany2 concluded that all areas will see an increase in the number of days with spring frost, especially the Lake Constance region, where reduced yields are projected until the end of this century. At the same time, however, only a few preliminary studies have been carried out on this subject, so uncertainty prevails. Outlook The spring frost in 2017 illustrated the scale that such an event can assume, and just how high losses in fruit growing and viticulture can be. Because the period of vegetation is starting earlier and earlier in the year as a result of climate change, spring frost losses could increase in the future, assuming the last spring frost is not similarly early. It is reasonable to assume that these developments will be highly localised, depending on whether the climate is continental or maritime, and whether a location is at altitude or in a valley. Regional studies with projections based on climate models are still in short supply and at an early stage of research. However, one first important finding is that the projected decrease in days with spring frost does not in any way imply a reduction in the agricultural spring frost risk for a region. So spring frosts could well result in greater fluctuations in agricultural yields. In addition to preventive measures, such as the use of fleece covers at night, sprinkler irrigation and the deployment of wind machines, it will therefore be essential to supplement risk management in fruit growing and viticulture with crop insurance that covers all natural perils. Source - ttps://www.munichre.com/
Russia Livestock Overview: Cattle, Swine, Sheep & Goats
Private plots generate 48 percent of cattle, 43 percent of swine and 54 percent of sheep and goats in Russia. The Russian government recently approved a new program that will succeed the National Priority Project in agriculture (NPP) titled, “TheState Program for Development of Agriculture and Regulation of Food and Agricultural Markets in 2008-2012,” that encourages pork and beef production and attempts to address Russia’s declining cattle numbers. This program includes import-substitution policies designed to stimulate domestic livestock production and to protect local producers. In the beginning of 2007, the economic environment for swine production was generally unfavorable. The average production cost was RUR40-45/kilo of live weight, while the farm gate price was RUR40/kilo live weight. Pork producers have been expressing concern for years about sales after implementation of the NPP as pork consumption is growing at a slower rate than pork production. As a result, the pork sector has been lobbying the Russian government to regulate imports in spite of the meat TRQ agreement. From January-September 2007, 1.38 million metric tons (MMT) of red meat was imported. A 12-year decline in beef production has resulted in limited beef availability in the Russian market leading to a spike in prices. In response, the Russian government has been force to take steps to increase the availability of beef by lifting a meat ban on Poland and by looking to Latin America for higher volumes of product. Feed stocks decreased during the first 11 months of 2007 compared to the previous year which will likely create even greater financial problems for livestock operations in 2008 as feed prices continue to skyrocket. Grain prices increased rapidly in Russia through the middle of July 2007 before stabilizing at high levels as harvest progress reports were released. The Russian pig crop is expected to increase by 6 percent in 2008, while cattle herds are predicted to decrease by 3.5 percent. Some meat market analysts predict that by 2012, as new and modernized pig farming complexes reach planned capacity, pork production could reach 3.5 MMT – up 75 percent from 2008 estimates. According to the Russian Statistics Agency (Rosstat), 1/3 of all Russian “large farms” are unprofitable. Many of these are involved in livestock production. Small, inefficient producers are uncompetitive and have already begun disappearing from the market. The Russian veterinary service continues to playa decisive role in meat import supply management. Source - http://www.cattlenetwork.com
Statistics Canada : Farm income, 2011
Realized net income for Canadian farmers amounted to $5.7 billion in 2011, a 53.1% increase from 2010. This rise followed a 19.0% increase in 2010 and a 19.6% decline in 2009. Realized income is the difference between a farmer's cash receipts and operating expenses, minus depreciation, plus income in kind. Realized net income fell in four provinces: Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Manitoba and British Columbia. In each, increases in costs outpaced gains in receipts. Farm cash receipts Farm cash receipts, which include market receipts from crop and livestock sales as well as program payments, rose 11.9% to $49.8 billion in 2011. This was the first increase since 2008. Market receipts alone increased 12.0% to $46.3 billion. Crop receipts, which increased 15.8% to $25.9 billion, contributed the most to the increase. Sales from livestock products rose 7.5% to $20.3 billion, the largest annual increase since 2005. Stronger prices for grains and oilseeds played a major role in the increase in crop revenues. For example, canola receipts increased 37.3% in 2011 on the strength of a 27.3% gain in prices. Grains and oilseed prices started rising in the last half of 2010 as a result of limited global stocks and strong demand. Even though prices peaked in mid-2011, prices for the year, on average, remained well above 2010 levels. Crop receipts rose in every province except Manitoba and Newfoundland and Labrador. In Manitoba, difficult growing conditions reduced marketings of most grains and oilseeds. In Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick, increases in potato prices and marketings helped push crop receipts higher. It was also stronger prices that were behind the rise in livestock receipts. Hog receipts increased 15.5% to $3.9 billion on the strength of a 14.7% price increase. Cattle prices rose 19.5% in 2011, while receipts increased 1.1% because of a reduced supply of market animals. Hog, cattle and calf prices increased in 2010. The upward trend continued throughout most of 2011, primarily because of low North American inventories and high feed grain costs. Receipts for producers in the three supply-managed sectors-dairy, poultry and eggs-increased 7.9% as rising prices reflected higher costs for feed grain and other production inputs. A 14.9% rise in chicken receipts exceeded increases for eggs (+8.7%) and dairy products (+5.3%). Program payments increased 11.2% to $3.5 billion in 2011. Increases in Quebec provincial stabilization payments as well as crop insurance payments in Manitoba and Saskatchewan accounted for much of the rise. Farm expenses Farm operating expenses (after rebates) were up 8.4% to $38.3 billion in 2011, the second-largest percentage increase since 1981. This increase followed two consecutive years of modest declines. Higher prices for fertilizer, feed and machinery fuel contributed to the increase in operating expenses. According to the Farm Input Price Index, both fertilizer and machinery fuel prices were up by over 25% in 2011. At the same time, feed grain prices increased by more than 30%. When depreciation charges were included, total farm expenses increased 8.2% to $44.1 billion. Depreciation costs rose 6.9%. Total farm expenses advanced in every province in 2011. The largest percentage increases occurred in Saskatchewan (+12.3%), Quebec (+9.5%) and Alberta (+9.0%). Total net income Total net income reached $5.8 billion, a $3.3 billion gain. There were large increases in Saskatchewan (+$2.1 billion), Alberta (+$567 million) and Ontario (+$470 million), while Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and Manitoba saw declines. Total net income adjusts realized net income for changes in farmer-owned inventories of crops and livestock. It represents the return to owner's equity, unpaid labour, and management and risk. The total value of farm-owned inventories rose by $165 million in 2011. A strong increase in deferred grain payments together with the first increase in cattle inventories since 2004 contributed to the rise. Note to readersRealized net income can vary widely from farm to farm because of several factors, including commodities, prices, weather and economies of scale. This and other aggregate measures of farm income are calculated on a provincial basis employing the same concepts used in measuring the performance of the overall Canadian economy. They are a measure of farm business income, not farm household income. Financial data for 2011 collected at the individual farm business level using surveys and other administrative sources will soon be tabulated and made available. These data will help explain differences in performance of various types and sizes of farms. For details on farm cash receipts for the first three quarters of 2012, see today's "Farm cash receipts" release. As a result of the release of data from the 2011 Census of Agriculture on May 10, 2012, data on farm cash receipts, operating expenses, net income, capital value and other data contained in the Agriculture Economic Statistics series are being revised, where necessary. The complete set of revisions will be released in the November 26, 2013, edition of The Daily. Table 1 Net farm income 2009 2010r 2011p 2009 to 2010 2010 to 2011 millions of dollars % change + Total farm cash receipts including payments 44,599 44,466 49,772 -0.3 11.9 - Total operating expenses after rebates 36,052 35,315 38,276 -2.0 8.4 = Net cash income 8,547 9,151 11,496 7.1 25.6 + Income-in-kind 39 40 45 2.6 11.1 - Depreciation 5,471 5,483 5,864 0.2 6.9 = Realized net income 3,115 3,709 5,677 19.0 53.1 + Value of inventory change -281 -1,157 165 ... ... = Total net income 2,834 2,551 5,842 ... ... Table 2 Net farm income, by province Canada Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec millions of dollars 2010r + Total farm cash receipts including payments 44,466 118 407 500 479 7,171 - Total operating expenses after rebates 35,315 106 367 422 406 5,472 = Net cash income 9,151 12 41 78 73 1,699 + Income-in-kind 40 0 0 1 1 10 - Depreciation 5,483 8 41 59 54 727 = Realized net income 3,709 4 0 19 20 983 + Value of inventory change -1,157 -0 18 0 9 13 = Total net income 2,551 4 18 19 29 996 2011p + Total farm cash receipts including payments 49,772 120 477 527 533 7,967 - Total operating expenses after rebates 38,276 114 391 448 424 6,018 = Net cash income 11,496 6 86 79 109 1,949 + Income-in-kind 45 0 0 1 1 11 - Depreciation 5,864 9 43 62 55 767 = Realized net income 5,677 -2 43 18 55 1,194 + Value of inventory change 165 -0 -12 2 -50 -24 = Total net income 5,842 -3 31 20 5 1,170 Source - http://www.4-traders.com/